F1 2021 teams5/9/2023 In order to better understand overall on-track expectations, we can combine the Elo and reliability metrics to predict how a driver and car combination would fare head-to-head against an average entrant on the 2021 grid. It would take only a slight narrowing of the performance or reliability gaps between Mercedes and Red Bull to tip the scales in Verstappen’s favor in the championship chase. That one grid spot is good for about a 5 percent boost in win probability, and this year that could mean everything.Īll of this just underscores how thin Hamilton’s margins are now. While Hamilton would have a 51 percent chance of beating Verstappen head-to-head in any given race, one of them will have to start in front of the other on Sunday. According to Elo, Verstappen has a 28 percent chance of grabbing the pole at Imola (ahead of Hamilton at 26 percent). That’s a not-insignificant advantage over Verstappen, who has an 89 percent chance of finishing a generic race in the Red Bull, placing him just slightly above the middle of the pack in reliability.īecause of this, Verstappen is projected to have a 51 percent to 49 percent edge on his rival in qualifying, where pure speed matters more, while Hamilton has an equally razor-thin edge on race day, where the effect of reliability creeps in over lap after grueling lap. Our ratings think he is the driver who adds the most in that area - even after controlling for team reliability - with a 93 percent chance of finishing a generic 300 kilometer race in his Mercedes. Of course, the place where Hamilton retains a sizable edge is in reliability. Taking into account both driver and car (and, again, conditional on finishing the race), our current Elo ratings consider Verstappen in the Red Bull to be faster at baseline than Hamilton in the Mercedes, the first time in years that Hamilton has not found himself ahead of the pack in that regard. And that helps inform our expectations for 2021, particularly after seeing the teams on-track and battling head-to-head in Bahrain. In other words, it was close enough as to nearly be a toss-up - which you wouldn’t have necessarily known from Hamilton’s massive lead in the standings. 3 In their respective cars, Hamilton would have been expected to beat Verstappen head-to-head 85 percent of the time in qualifying and 69 percent of the time in races, which basically matches up to what we saw from the two on the track last season. (In our current Elo model, the average driver rating is 1400 and the average team rating is 1200.) Red Bull had the second-best package, finishing 90 points of relative Elo behind Mercedes. The average performance of the Mercedes chassis and engine throughout 2020 gave its drivers a 242-point advantage over average in our Elo predictor, making it easily the best team in the field. But how much of that was because of differences in driver skill versus differences in equipment? Elo chalks it up mostly to the latter. As has been his habit in recent years, Hamilton comfortably won the drivers championship last season by 124 points over teammate Valtteri Bottas and 133 points over Verstappen. 2Īs a test case, let’s look at the battle at the front of the grid between Hamilton in his Mercedes and Verstappen in his Red Bull. Armed with these new wrinkles, Elo should give us a better sense of who is driving well, and who is being propelled along - or held back - by their ride. ![]() 1 We’ve also added a “reliability” component to the ratings, which estimates a driver or team’s odds of finishing a race without incident. Our latest version addresses both of those weaknesses: Teams and drivers are now rated separately, using a blend of both ratings to determine the odds of one driver/team combination finishing ahead of another in a given race or qualifying session. ![]() Our previous method didn’t separate drivers from teams, nor did it account for differences in their tendencies to finish races (or crash out in a blaze of glory). To help analyze those questions, we turned to our Formula One Elo ratings … and made some important upgrades to the system for 2021. But does Max Verstappen’s pole position and narrow defeat in the opening round mean change is here? Can Red Bull give its drivers a car that is not just quick enough but also reliable enough to end the Mercedes dynasty? And what should we expect from the many changes on the grid - headlined by the return of all-time legend Fernando Alonso after two seasons away from the sport? With Lewis Hamilton’s win in the opening round at Bahrain last month - on his way toward breaking Michael Schumacher’s all-time record with eight titles - Mercedes looks set to continue its unprecedented run of dominance. ![]() As we enter the second round of the 2021 Formula One Championship this weekend at Imola, we could be forgiven for assuming that this season will play out the same way each year has since 2014.
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